不确定线性回归模型在住宅工程单方造价预测中的应用

The Application of Uncertain Linear Regression Model in the Prediction of Per Square Meter Cost in Dwelling Project

工程造价指标的预测研究已成为工程造价管理工作的重要内容之一,其工程单方造价指标的预测又是关键所在.工程造价的计价特性和工程造价历史数据的匮乏性,使得如何建立科学的具有应用价值的预测模型成为亟待解决的问题.对此,以邯郸市已结算实际住宅工程为例,采用不确定线性回归预测模型对住宅工程单方造价指标进行预测.研究结果证明:不确定线性回归预测模型在此经济指标中的预测值与实际值非常接近,这为发包方、承包方、工程造价咨询公司以及工程造价管理部门快速预测该指标提供有利帮助.

The predictive study of construction cost index is one of the important contents to con- struction cost management, and the project cost index of per square meter is the key. Due to the valua- tion characteristics of the project cost and the lack of historical data, it is a essential problem to establish a model which can forecast project cost quickly and accurately. This paper with the actual project of Handan as an example, using uncertain linear regression model to predict the per square meter cost index of residential projects. The results show that the precision of uncertain linear regression model is very close to the actual value, it provide favorable help to predict per square meter cost index.