2009～2015年全球10次8级地震中期预测与检验

MEDIUM-TERM PREDICTION AND INSPECTION ON GLOBAL EIGHT M_S8. 0 EARTHQUAKES FROM 2009 TO 2015

采用全球分区、带历史震例总结对比方法,研究近代(1890年后)发生的103次8级以上地震,约占全部地震发生数的0.5。选择在震前几年强震活跃过程中出现率较高的10项特征,作为8级地震中期预测的经验性依据,统称为"地震活动图像异常"。它们可能反映主震破裂区及附近中短期阶段应变释放的演化过程,有一定的构造物理背景。预测全球2009年7月至2015年8级地震可能发生地段,共5处危险区和9处注意监视区。实际对应结果是:在其中4处危险区内发生6次8级以上地震(有两次双震);在3处注意监视区内发生4次8级以上地震。预测时段内全球也只发生这11次8级以上地震。虚报的注意区中有6处都在大陆内部,预测喜马拉雅带中段及太平洋周边发生的10次8级以上地震,获得较好对应,可供大地震趋势预测参考。

Using global partition and historical earthquakes summary comparison method, this paper researched 103 Ms8 earthquakes in modem times （post-1890）, which occupied total earthquake number of 0.5. It chose ten characteristics before earthquakes as medium-term forecast of Ms8 earthquake empirical basis which collectively referred to as ＂abnormal seismic activities. ＂ They might reflect mainshock rapture zone and evolution of strain release in the short-term, which had a certain structure physical background. It predicted possible sites of Ms8 earthquakes from July in 2009 to August in 2015 which included five dangerous areas and showed： three danger zones found five Ms8 earthquakes （there were nine monitoring areas. Results two double shocks） ; six moni- toring areas occurred three Ms8 earthquakes. There only occurred eight Ms8 earthquakes within global forecast period. Virtual danger zones had four danger zones and six monitoring areas in main- land, the prediction of Ms8 earthquakes in Pacific Rim had better correspondence rate which provid- ed reference for earthquake trend prediction,