住房支付能力、生育行为与人口年龄结构

Housing Affordability,Reproductive Behavior and Population Age Structure:Based on Empirical VAR Model

本文通过构建房价收入比、人口出生率和少儿抚养比的VAR模型,进行脉冲响应函数及方差分解分析,发现自我国实施货币化分房政策以来,高房价对我国人口出生率和人口年龄结构有重要影响。主要结论:(1)房价持续上涨,导致住房支付能力减弱,迫使人们做出推迟婚育的抉择;(2)住房支付能力减弱,直接使人口出生率下降,但经过4到5年的调整,人口出生率又逐渐恢复;(3)住房支付能力降低,间接拉低少儿抚养比,导致人口结构的老化;(4)人口出生率和少儿抚养比的变动也会引起房价的变化,特别是人口出生率和少儿抚养比的降低会影响到预期房价。基于国内房地产市场的特征和人口发展的现状,本文认为在将房价控制在合理区间的同时,有必要积极调整生育政策,完善社会保障体系,使得人口政策、教育措施、养老方式及住房保障政策相匹配,才能释放家庭活力,优化代际关系,最终实现人口、社会经济的可持续发展。

By constructing the VAR model of price earnings ratio,the birth rate and child dependency ratio and analyzing the impulse response function and variance decomposition, we found that the high prices have a significant impact on birth rate and population structure since the implementation of the monetization of housing distribution policy. The main conclusions are as follows ： （1）Housing prices continued to rise, which leads to reduced housing affordability and forces people to postpone marriage and childbearing; （2）Weakened housing affordability di- rectly results in the falling birth rate. But the birth rate began to recover after 4-5 years of adjustment; （3）Reduced housing affordability indi- rectly reduces child dependency ratio ,which gives rise to an aging population structure; （4）The variation of birth rate and child dependency ra- tio will bring about changes in prices,especially the decreased population birth rate and the child dependency ratio will affect the expected prices. Finally, based on the features of domestic real estate market and the current population development,this paper argues that it is neces- sary to actively adjust birth policy and improve the social security system while keeping the price in a reasonable range to release the family dynamic and optimize intergenerational relations,which will ultimately achieves sustainable development of population, society and economy.