中国“十三五”时期劳动供给和需求预测及缺口分析

Forecasting China's Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13th Five-Year-Plan Period

劳动供给和需求是影响经济增长的重要因素。文章运用多种方法对"十三五"以及今后更长一段时期中国劳动供求变化进行预测和分析,并使用脱离教育人数法预测了每年新增劳动力的规模和结构,结合发达国家工业化过程中就业弹性变化规律预测了劳动需求变化。预测结果显示:"十三五"时期,新增劳动力供给规模稳中略降,年均增加1568万人,劳动需求增长也比较平稳,年均增加1542万人,劳动供求呈现基本平衡的格局。不过,就业的结构性矛盾却在不断加大,结构性失业问题比较突出;文章在对劳动供求缺口分析的基础上,具体测算了"4050"人员、农民工和大学毕业生在失业人员中的规模,并就如何促进大学生就业提出了一些建议。

The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China＇ s labor supply and demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future. The scale and struc- ture of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education, while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries. The results show that, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly, with an average annual increment of around 15.68 million. At the same time, labor demand would increase steadily, with annually ：15.42 million employment opportunities. Labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced; however, there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market. Based on the analysis of labor supply and demand, we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40＇ s and 50＇ s generations, migrant workers and college graduates, and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates.