货运量与工业经济关联机制研究

Study on Correlation between Transportation Volume and Industrial Economy

研究不同运输方式的货运量与工业经济之间的关联机制,对规划交通系统及促进工业经济增长具有指导意义。运用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等方法进行建模分析,结果表明铁路货运量、公路货运量均与工业增加值具有长期协整机制,铁路货运量与工业经济已形成因果互动机制,而民航货运量与工业经济还未形成长期协整机制。

In this paper, we studied the correlation between the transportation volume of different transportation means and the industrial economy, and then using the co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, etc., built the analytic model, through which we found that there existed a long-term co-integration mechanism between the railway transportation volume and highway transportation volume with the gross industrial production, that there was an interactive causal mechanism between the railway freight transport volume and the industrial economy, and that the long-term co-integration mechanism between the civil aviation transport volumewith the industrial economy was yet to be formed.