基于自然灾害的供应链脆性强度研究

Study on Supply Chain Brittleness in Event of Natural Diasters

基于脆性理论建立了供应链系统脆性结构模型,分析供应链系统内部脆性结构关系。然后在自然灾害条件下建立灾害极值分布模型和供应链脆性强度模型,得出自然灾害等级、危险子系统强度、系统脆性关联程度是影响供应链系统脆性强度的主要因素,并计算出自然灾害发生的概率、脆性联系熵和脆性强度。最后通过算例验证结果分析,提出脆性预防措施。

In this paper, on the basis of the brittleness theory, we built the supply chain system structural brittleness model, analyzed the interrelationship between the internal substructures of the system, then in the event of the occurrence of natural disasters, established the disaster extreme value distribution model and the supply chain brittleness model, through which we found out that the natural disaster grade, hazard subsystem intensity and system brittleness correlation were the major factors influencing the brittleness of the supply chain and then calculated the probability of the occurrence of the natural disasters, the brittleness relation entropy and brittleness strength, and at the end, through a numerical example, proposed the corresponding preventive measures.