基于多元统计分析的浙江省水资源承载力综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation on the Water Resources Bearing Capacity of Zhejiang Province Based on Multivariate Statistical Analysis

建立浙江省水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法和聚类分析法,对浙江省2000—2013年水资源承载力的演变趋势展开纵向演变分析。结果表明:社会经济环境综合承载因子和水资源承载因子是影响浙江省水资源承载力的关键因子;浙江省水资源承载力整体表现为逐年波动上升的趋向,2000—2002年水资源承载力低水平阶段,2003—2009年为平稳发展阶段,2010—2013年为振荡阶段。最后提出提高浙江省水资源承载力的措施与建议。

In this paper, an evaluation index system of water resources beating capacity in Zhejiang Province was established. The principal component analysis and cluster analysis methods were used to analyze the longitudinal evolution of the water resources bearing capacity of Zhejiang province from 2000 to 2013. The results show that comprehensive carrying factor of social, economic and environment, and water resources carrying factor are the main factors affecting the water resources bearing capacity of Zhejiang province, which showed an integral trend that vibrating and rising year by year. The water resources bearing capacity was at a lower level stage between 2000 and 2002, at a steady developing stage between 2003 and 2009, and at a vibrating stage between 2010 and 2013. Finally, it put forward some suggestions that can improve the water resources bearing capacity of Zhejiang province.