近15年来西安市主要气候要素变化的R/S分析

R/S Analysis of Major Climatic Factors in Xi'an in Recent 15 Years

利用西安市1998—2012年的地面气象观测资料,选取气温、相对湿度、气压、降水和日照时数5个气候要素,运用R/S分析、线性倾向分析等方法研究了西安市最近15年来气候要素的年际和季节动态变化及未来的发展趋势.研究结果表明:西安市的年平均气温、年平均相对湿度、年平均气压在研究时段内分别表现出幅度不同的下降或减少趋势,而全年降水量和全年日照时数则表现出增加趋势;各气候要素的Hurst指数值均在(0,1)范围内,说明它们具有明显的赫斯特现象,反映了西安过去15年的气候变化存在趋势性成分,即持续性的气候变化效应,具体表现为:在未来的变化趋势上,年平均气温、年平均相对湿度和全年日照时数可能是不同程度的上升或增加趋势,而年平均气压和全年降水则可能是下降或减少趋势;各气候要素在未来可能出现的某种变化趋势则是基于不同季节的主导作用.

In this paper, based on the meteorological observation data from 1998 to 2012 in Xi＇an, by selecting five climatic factors of temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, precipitation and sunshine duration, and by using of R/S analysis, linear tendency analysis and other methods, the annual and seasonal dynamic changes of climate factors in Xi＇an in recent 15 years and its future development trends were studied. The results show that the annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity, annual average air pressure in the study period showed a decline or decreasing trend, while the annual precipitation and annual sunshine duration showed an increasing trend. The Hurst index values of each climatic factors were in the range of （0, 1 ）, which indicating that these factors have obvious Hearst phenomenon and reflecting the trend of climate changes in recent 15 years in Xi＇an, that is the sustained climate changes effect. The specific performance of climate changes is as follows ： In the future, the annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity and annual sunshine duration may be different degrees of rise or increase, while the annual average air pressure and annual rainfall may be delined or decreased. The changing trend of climate factors in the future is based on the leading role of different seasons.