摘要
In order to explore the characteristics and development strategies of Chinese manufacturing production system, the grey forecasting model GM( 1,1) and the grey verhulst dynamic model were built firstly. The prediction results show that Chinese manufacturing productivity would reach $ 32 806 per person in 2018,which indicates rapid development and lays the foundation for China to become the world's manufacturing power since the reform and opening up. However, it is predicted that Chinese manufacturing productivity would peak in 2018 based on the grey verhulst dynamic model,which reveals the resource configuration mode of Chinese manufacturing system could not prop up its increasing manufacturing capability. Furthermore the main reasons of this phenomenon were explored,which could be summarized as the lack of accumulation,integration of industrial engineering( IE)and information technology( IT), promoting mechanism of IE application as well as integration model of management innovation and technology innovation,etc. Finally,a series of strategies based on IE theory to solve these problems were given. This study provides an effective way to deal with the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese manufacturing industry,meanwhile,it may contribute to the theoretical system of IE.
In order to explore the characteristics and development strategies of Chinese manufacturing production system, the grey forecasting model GM（ 1,1） and the grey verhulst dynamic model were built firstly. The prediction results show that Chinese manufacturing productivity would reach $ 32 806 per person in 2018,which indicates rapid development and lays the foundation for China to become the world’s manufacturing power since the reform and opening up. However, it is predicted that Chinese manufacturing productivity would peak in 2018 based on the grey verhulst dynamic model,which reveals the resource configuration mode of Chinese manufacturing system could not prop up its increasing manufacturing capability. Furthermore the main reasons of this phenomenon were explored,which could be summarized as the lack of accumulation,integration of industrial engineering（ IE）and information technology（ IT）, promoting mechanism of IE application as well as integration model of management innovation and technology innovation,etc. Finally,a series of strategies based on IE theory to solve these problems were given. This study provides an effective way to deal with the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese manufacturing industry,meanwhile,it may contribute to the theoretical system of IE.
基金
National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.70971095)
the Ministry of Science and Technology Foundation of China(No.2012IM040500)
the Doctoral Scientific Fund Project of the Ministry of Education of China(No.20120032110035)
