新常态下促进民族地区高速、持续和包容性发展研究

A Study of Promoting High-speed,Sustained and Inclusive Development under the New Normal

对1978年到2014年的经济数据的重点研究发现,在1978-2014年的3个周期中,民族八省区的潜在经济增长率都保持在高位的态势,且呈现出加速的趋势。但2008年以后,无论是实际经济增长率还是潜在经济增长率,全国和民族八省区都呈现出减缓的趋势,潜在经济增长率趋于稳定并在部分省份呈现下降趋势,但是其经济潜在增长率仍然保持高位。实际经济增长率和潜在经济增长率保持有较大的缺口。实际经济增长率明显低于潜在经济增长率。民族八省区的经济增长一部分受全国经济增长速度下降的影响,同时也随自身的潜在经济增长率下降而下降。总体上,绝大多数民族地区尚未进入新常态的调整阶段,保持高速经济增长的潜力和空间还很大。经济"新常态"除了增长速度的台阶式下降外,更多的是一种发展机遇。民族地区要主动适应"新常态",抓住新常态下的发展机遇,推动民族地区可持续的跨越式发展。文章提出了相关政策建议,主要包括:构建和完善包容性制度;确保增长速度高于全面平均水平;增长动力机制由要素和资源开发驱动向效率驱动产业结构升级;通过延伸产业链,利用"互联网+"提升产业结构;构建与完善地方政府绩效考核方式。

Using the methodology of the HP filter（ Hodrick-Prescott Filter）,this article calculates the potential economic growth rate and volatility of the eight ethnic provinces and regions as well as that of the whole country,and using the theory of economic cycles,the articles creates six large stages. Through a special research on economic data from the three cycles from 1978 to 2014,the article discovers that the potential economic growth rate of the eight ethnic provinces and regions was not only high,but moreover,exhibited an increasing trend.The article noticed as well that after 2008,no matter was the actual economic growth rate or the potential economic growth,the entire country,including the eight ethnic provinces and regions,exhibited a decreasing trend. However,their potential economic growth rate was still high. There was a large gap between the actual economic growth rate and the potential economic growth rate. The actual economic growth rate was obviously lower that the potential economic growth rate. Part of economic growth of the eight ethnic provinces and regions was influenced by the nation-wide economic decline,and meanwhile,its potential economic growth rate was also declining.The article states that,generally speaking,most ethnic regions have not yet stepped into the adjustment era of the ＂New Normal ＂,therefore,there is still a great potential and space for maintaining high-speed economic growth. The article also states that the economy of the ＂New Normal＂,ex-cept for some decline in the speed of growth,is more of a development opportunity. Ethnic minority areas should actively adapt to the ＂New Normal＂,grasp the opportunity,and promote sustainable,＂leaping＂development. Thus,the article puts forward some suggestions as follows：1. Constructing and perfecting an inclusive system. To do this,first,economic freedom is required,and the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation; secondly,property rights should be clearly defined and protected; and thirdly,there must be a fair and legal competitive environment.2. Ensuring its economic growth speed is higher than the national average. If the ethnic minority areas plan to step into a comprehensively well-off society by 2020 together with the whole nation,and realize the great rejuvenation of Chinese nation by2050,its growth speed must be higher than the national average growth level.3. Transforming the system of economic growth. The most important thing for this point is to create a healthy business environment,and promote innovation in the public.4. Promoting industrial structure through extending the industrial chain and application of the internet. Strengthening the infrastructure construction of Internet,relying on ＂Internet plus＂,and expanding product market are of great significance for the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.5. Constructing and perfecting the method for evaluating local government performance. The evaluation should shift from local GDP to local national income,from local GDP to GEP（ Gross Ecosystem Production）