点火概率在石化应急预案中的应用

TRIAL APPLICATION OF IGNITION PROBABILITY IN PETROCHEMICAL EMERGENCY PLAN

泄漏概率分析、点火概率分析在石化生产的事故分析和生产状态安全评估分析中有非常重要的作用。石化装置的应急预案在我国逐步被重视,预案的建立也逐步详细化,大量的预案仅仅通过感性分析进行严重性分级,无法达到科学分级的目的,不利于实际生产管理。结合泄漏概率分析,针对石化应急预案中预想的事件进行初期点火概率评估,对应急预案中预想的初期点火事件进行排序,便于石化装置的日常管理和演练。

Analysis of leakage probability and ignition probability plays a very important role in the accident analysis and safety assessment of production state in petrochemical production.Contingency plans for petrochemical devices are gradually being taken seriously in our country and the plans are gradually made in details.Severity rating is conducted in a large number of plans only through perceptual analysis and scientific rating can't be achieved in this way,which doesn't contribute to production management.Combining with analysis of leakage probability,this paper assesses the initial ignition probability for the expected events of the contingency plans and sorts the expected initial ignition events in the contingency plans.These facilitate the daily management and drill of petrochemical devices.