21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线国家旅游贸易:潜力、效率及其影响因素

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Tourism Trade:Potential,Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors

21世纪海上丝绸之路是一条带有全球战略意义的贸易之路,在旅游产业的"515"战略中也明确了要发展"一带一路"旅游。本文通过构建旅游贸易的随机前沿引力模型和旅游贸易非效率模型,研究了中国的出入境旅游贸易效率,并利用一步法验证了旅游贸易非效率的影响因素。研究发现:(1)人均GDP、人口总量能够正向影响旅游贸易水平,而两国之间的距离和目前的签证制度则产生负向影响;(2)目前的服务贸易协定以及突发事件会增强旅游贸易非效率的影响,而国际航空运输能力以及两国之间的汇率会减弱旅游贸易非效率;(3)中国出境旅游贸易效率呈现增长趋势,且仍有潜力可挖,入境旅游贸易效率呈现下降趋势,中国入境旅游市场亟待重振。为进一步提高21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线国家的旅游贸易水平,应从提升旅游便利化水平、加强区域旅游合作和加强区域旅游安全环境营造等方面推进。

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is a trade route which has global strategic significance. Tourism industry＂S15＂ strategy emphasizes the tourism development of ＂the Belt and Road＂. This study introduced stochastic frontier approach on the basis of the traditional gravity model, established tourism trade stochastic frontier gravity model and inefficient model. The research results showed that： （1）The level of economic development of Countries and population size can promote the tourism trade ; the greater the distance between the two countries, the lower level of tourism business; the current visa situation results in a negative impact on the tourism trade. （2） current service trade agreement and the occur of incidents enhanced the tourism trade inefficiency;enhancing the capacity of the international air transport can be reduced tourist trade inefficiency; the greater exchange rate, more obvious effects of offsetting the tourism trade inefficiency. （3）there was a growing trend on the efficiency of China＇ s outbound tourism, China＇s inbound tourism business efficiency showed a clear downward trend. In order to further improve the ＂Marine Silk Road＂ tourism trade level, we should enhance the level of tourism facilitation, strengthen regional tourism cooperation and strengthen regional security environment.