山东沿渤海地区百年一遇高潮位影响人口的预测

Prediction of the population in the 100-year flood-impacted Shandong coast along Bohai Sea

预测山东沿渤海地区百年一遇高潮位影响人口,可为政府制订对策保护影响人口提供科学依据。利用模型方法预测2030年、2050年和2100年百年一遇高潮位高度值。利用地理信息系统方法识别百年一遇高潮位影响区、预测影响人口。研究结果如下：如果不对百年一遇高潮位采取防范措施、不考虑百年一遇高潮位持续时间和不考虑人口自然增长,山东沿渤海地区百年一遇高潮位影响人口,2000年、2030年、2050年和2100年年分别为86.79×10^4、93.33×10^4、97.43×10^4和115.40×10^4人。研究结果表明：（1）影响人口占沿海地区总人口的比例大,2000年、2030年、2050年和2100年年分别为10.34%、11.13%、11.61%和13.75%;（2）影响人口相对集中,主要分布在寿光、东营、昌邑、广饶、垦利、河口和寒亭地区,占85%-90%;（3）由于影响区范围不断扩大,影响人口逐年增多,增加的影响人口相对集中,主要分布在东营、沾化、寿光、广饶、无棣、河口和垦利,占93.48%-94.63%;（4）影响区抢险、自救和逃生困难不断增大,从2000年到2100年,影响区内岸线附近的水深将增加0.47-1.19 m;（5）人口密度大、地形坡度小的河口、垦利、东营、广饶和寿光是百年一遇高潮位影响人口多、随平均海平面上升影响人口增加快的地区,应给予特别关注。

The population at risk in the 100-year flood-impacted coast of Shandong along Bohai Sea is predicted in order to provide the scientific basis for governments to formulate countermeasures. The model is used to predict the 100-year high water in 2030, 2050 and 2100. And the method of geographical information system is used to identify the 100-year floodimpacted area and to predict the population at risk in the impacted area. If neither taking measures for the 100-year high water, nor considering the duration of the 100-year high water and the natural increase of population, the results are that there are 86.79×10^4, 93.33×10^4, 97.43×10^4and 115.40×10^4persons in the 100-year flood-impacted area in 2000, 2030, 2050 and2100, respectively. The conclusions are as follows. First, the population is large in the impacted area and accounts for10.34%, 11.13%, 11.61% and 13.75% of the total population along Bohai Sea; second, 85%-90% of the population in 100-year flood-impacted area will live in the coast of Shouguang, Dongying, Changyi, Guangrao, Kenli, Hekou and Hanting; third,the population in 100-year flood-impacted area will increase year by year, and 87%-91% of the increased population will live in Dongying, Zhanhua, Shouguang, Guangrao, Wudi, Changyi, Hekou and Kenli; fourth, the water depth in 100-year flood-impacted area will increase year by year, and it will increase 0.47 to 1.19 m near the shore by 2100, increasing the difficulties of rescue, self-rescue and escape; final, there are more people in 100-year flood-impacted area and the people will increase faster with sea level rise in Hekou, Kenli, Dongying, Guangrao and Shouguang because of the bigger population density and gentler slope. So, these areas ought to be paid close attention to.