渭河干流关中段非突发性水质超标风险研究

An Excessive Risk Analysis of Water Quality for Weihe River in Shaanxi

基于河流水环境系统的复杂性和不确定性,利用随机过程理论,构建了非突发性水质超标风险模型,假设河流水质参数服从对数正态分布函数,采用蒙特卡洛方法求解水质超标风险值。以渭河干流关中段为例进行水质超标风险研究,结果表明:渭河干流关中段COD和NH_3-N的总体水质超标风险都为1,渭河干流关中段水质超标风险极高。

This study based on the complexity and uncertainty characteristics of river water environmental system, used the theory of stochastic process to build a non?sudden risk model. It assumed that the river water quality parameters obey the lognormal distribution function and solved the risk model by using of the Monte Carlo method. The case study of central Shaanxi reach of the Weihe River shows that the total risk rate exceeding water quality standard of ammonia nitrogen and COD are 1. The risk of exceeding water quality standard of central Shaanxi reach of Weihe River is extremely high.