产业结构变迁与城市经济长期增长--基于广州市1949-2013年数据的实证分析

The Industrial Structure Change and Urban Economic Growth in Long-term——An Empirical Analysis based on the Data of Guangzhou from 1949 to 2013

产业结构变迁是经济增长的重要影响因素。运用广州1949-2013年的历史数据,从结构合理化与高级化两个维度验证产业结构变迁对城市经济增长影响的理论假说。将1949-2013年分为三个阶段的实证结果表明,广州市的产业结构合理化与高级化不同程度地影响着经济增长,近年来出现产业结构高级化影响经济增长的现象。相应的政策含义是:大城市的产业结构高级化应在产业结构合理化的基础上进行,不能过度追求高级化;服务业的发展存在成本病,盲目追求高级化会抑制城市经济增长。

This paper collects the historical data from 1949 to 2013 in Guangzhou, to verify the theoreti- cal hypothesis about the impact of the industrial structure rationalization and sophistication on the city economic growth. Econometric analysis shows that, there is significant relationship between industrial structure change of Guangzhou and economic growth in three stages, and what＇s more, it is found that in Guangzhou in recent years the industrial structure sophistication affects the economic growth. Finally, the policy implication of this paper is, the high level of industrial structure of big city should work in the basis of the rationalization, but the pursuit of advanced industrial structure can not be excessive, because the development of service industry has a cost disease, and the blind pursuit of advanced industrial structure will suppress the city economic growth.