财政生产性支出、税制结构与居民消费增长

The Government Productive Expenditure,Tax Structure and Private Consumption Growth

长期以来,我国内需不振,居民消费需求增长乏力,政府也采取了积极财政政策刺激消费,但收效甚微。在肯定了财政生产性支出对居民消费挤入作用的基础上,将税制结构引入增长模型中,理论上证明税制结构对挤入作用的影响,再运用我国30个省级区域1999-2013年的面板数据进行回归分析,结果证实了上述理论假设。研究表明,总体上,我国间接税比重偏高,削弱了财政生产性支出对居民消费增长的挤入作用;分地区来看,东部、中部和西部的间接税比重均偏高,且各税种在地区间影响的显著性存在差异。因此,我国应因地制宜,调整和优化税制结构,最大限度消除间接税为主体的税制结构对消费增长的阻碍,释放居民消费能力。

China has been in a long-term state of depressed internal demand. Even though the govern- ment applies active fiscal policy, the effect seems to be insignificant. Firstly, the paper admits that government productive expenditure will create crowding-in effect to private consumption. Then the paper introduces tax structure into the economic growth model to prove that tax structure influences this crowding-in effect. Next, the regression analysis of 30 provinces＇ panel data from 1999 to 2013 testifies the theoretical expectation men- tioned above. Therefore, the paper believes the ratio of indirect tax, is rather high, and thus lessen the crow- ding-in effect. The high ratio of indirect tax is a nationwide problem. And the significant influence of various taxes is different among the areas. In conclusion, China should adapt and optimize tax structure based on the local reality to reform the present tax structure, which the indirect tax occupies the majority position, from hin- dering the increase of consumer consumption.