我国保险资金运用顺周期性及逆周期监管

A Study of the Pro-cyclicality Effect of Fund Application and Counter-cyclical Regulatory Policy in the Insurance Industry of China

构建出保险资金运用质量顺周期与数量顺周期两个模型对我国保险资金运用顺周期效应进行实证分析。结果显示,我国保险资金运用存在显著顺周期性,使得保险公司经营顺经济周期而波动,并加深宏观经济波动程度。该研究创造性地从保险资金运用数量与运用质量两维度描述保险资金运用与宏观经济变量之间周期性关系,揭示保险资金运用数量与运用质量之间内在联系;在数据上首次采用月度数据和季度数据研究保险资金运用顺周期问题,做出了更稳健的实证研究,对我国保险行业实施逆周期政策以缓解顺周期性对保险业和宏观经济环境冲击、降低整个保险体系系统性风险、提高我国保险业逆周期监管效率具有重要意义。

By building the quantity and quality pro -cyclicality models,the paper analyzes the pro -cyclicality effects of the iusurance fund. Results show that obvious pro - cyclicality effect exist in insurance fund application. This characteristic makes the operation of insurance companies fluctuate according to the economic cycle,and further exacerbate macroeconomie volatility. The study creatively analyzes the relationship between the insurance fund applieation and maeroeeonomie variables from both quantity and quality perspectives, and depicts the internal relation between the quantity and quality application of insurance fund. Month and quarter data are firstly introduced to analyze the pro - cyclicality of insurance fund application. The study is of great significance to mitigating the impact of pro - cyelicality on the insurance industry and the macroeeonomie environment, reducing the systemic risk of the whole insurance system, and improving the efficiency of counter - cyclical supervision.