基于复杂系统理论的公共危机预警方法研究

Study of Public Crisis Warning Method Based on Complex System Theory

公共危机的爆发往往具有演化、衍生等连锁反应,使得传统预警方法很难奏效。复杂系统分析为公共危机预警提供了新的思路。文章从复杂系统理论视角探讨了公共危机发生后可能导致的系统崩溃模式和机理,发现社会系统发生崩溃的方式与物理学中由于"熵"值增加导致的崩溃机理类似,可以借助"脆性熵"来衡量社会系统抵御公共危机事件冲击的能力。基于此,提出了结合系统风险解耦分析、智能等级评价、最大熵值计算以及支持向量机模型的预警方法,可以实现对公共危机事件危害范围的预警。

The outbreak of public crisis tends to be evolutionary,derivative and easily formed to a chain reaction,which makes traditional early warning methods hardly work.However,complex system analysis provides a new way of thinking for public crisis warning.The modes and mechanisms of public crisis leading to system collapse were discussed in this paper.It was found that the social system collapses caused by public crisis events are similar to the collapse mechanisms caused by entropy value increase in physics studies.The abilities of social system can be measured to resist the impact of public crisis events,using ＂brittle entropy＂.A hybrid warning method by integrating system risk decoupling,intelligent assessment,maximum entropy calculation analysis and support vector machine model was proposed,which can be used to forewarn the possible breakage degree caused by public crisis events.