基于GM(1,1)模型的护士工作绩效趋势灰预测研究

Prediction study on the trend of nurse job performance based on GM(1,1)model

目的定量预测护士工作绩效趋势,为有效制订针对性绩效改进计划,正确引导护士行为,不断提高护士绩效水平和提升整体护理质量提供科学依据。方法以科室2014年4-7月份护士工作绩效评分为基础,采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对科室护理工作绩效进行预测。结果科室护士工作绩效预测值呈现稳定、增长、下降三种不同变化类型,且在增长型中增长幅度不等,下降型中的下降速率有的缓慢有的剧烈。结论应用灰色预测模型对护士工作绩效进行预测是可行的,护理管理人员应该根据护士工作绩效趋势合理确定护士的绩效改进措施和方案。

Objective To predict the nurse job performance trends quantitatively in order to provide the scientific basis for developing targeted performance improvement plan effectively, to guide nurses＇ behavior correctly, and to improve the nurse performance level and improving the overall care quality. Methods Based on the nurses work performance evaluation of the department from April to July, 2014, used the grey prediction GM （1, 1） model to predict the nurse performance of the department. Results The department nurse job performance forecast value presents three different change types. There are stability, growth and decline, and in growth type. The increase amplitude is unequal. The decline ratio is slow or intense in decline type. Conclusions It is feasible to forecast the nurse job performance using the grey forecasting model. The nursing management personnel should reasonably confirm the performance improvement measures and solutions according to nurses＇ job performance trend.