吴起—延炼输油管道高后果区风险模糊评价

Study on Fuzzy Assessment of Risk in High Consequence Areas of Wuqi-Yanlian Oil Pipeline

针对近些年国内油气长输管道泄漏与爆炸安全事故频发,高后果区(HCAs)生产运行过程失效风险增大,以吴起—延炼输油管道为例,系统研究了高后果区的风险评价问题:(1)根据HCAs评分标准识别管线高后果区;(2)分析高后果区管段危险因素,建立抉择评语集及评价指标体系;(3)采用层次分析法(AHP)计算指标权重,运用模糊评价确定高后果区管段风险级数。研究结果表明:吴起—延炼输油管道D段HCAs风险级数为0.575 1,处于中等风险与较高风险之间,存在较大的风险隐患。

In recent years ,oil and gas pipeline leakage and explosion accident occurs frequently in our country, and the failure risk ofhigh consequence areas （HCAs）increases in the operation process of oil/gas pipeline. For this reason, the risk assessment of the oil-gaspipeline in high consequence areas is systemically studied taking Wuqi-Yanlian oil pipeline as an example. First,identify the high con-sequence areas of the pipeline according to the score standard for HCAs, and then analyze the risk factors of the pipe segments in thehigh consequence areas, establish the selection evaluation set and the evaluation index system. Finally, use the analytic hierarchy process（AHP） to calculate the index weight,and use fuzzy evaluation to determine the risk levels of the pipe segments in high consequence are-as. The research result shows that the risk level of D segment of Wuqi-Yanlian oil pipeline is 0. 575 1, which is between medium riskand high risk, so there is great risk in the pipeline.