基于融雪TOPMODEL模型对玛纳斯河流域径流的模拟

The Application of TOPMODEL for Runoff Simulation in the Manas River Based on Snowmelt

冰川融雪是玛纳斯河流域径流形成的主要组成部分,为反映流域的实际情况,需考虑融雪的计算。本文采用基于融雪的TOPMODEL模型模拟玛纳斯河流域的日降雨径流过程,为克服传统度-日法所忽略掉的太阳辐射等因素,运用考虑辐射因素的温度指标法计算融雪量,模型中的地形指数统计曲线由几何锥面内切圆算法得出,并采用GLUE法分析模型参数的不确定性。模拟结果表明:地形指数在中高山区分布比较密集,降雨发生时更易产生径流;改进的温度指标法计算的确定性系数较好。说明利用改进后的融雪量算法耦合模型更适合玛纳斯河山区的日径流模拟,融雪量算法的改进不仅使模型在干旱区流域有一定的适用性,对TOPMODEL模型精度的提高具有参考价值。

Glacier melt is the main component of the forming of runoff in Xinjiang.For reflecting the actual situation of the basin ,the calculation of the snow melting should be considered.This paper attempts to simulate rainfall runoff by using improved snowmelt model algorithm coupling TOPMODEL.On the basis of the traditional model,the improved temperature indicator method after considering radiation is used to calculate the amount of snowmeh.A new algorithm to accurately calculate topography index curve by using internal tangent circle on conical surface method was proposed.The uncertainty of parameters with TOPMODEL model was analyzed by using the GLUE （Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation） method.The result shows that the distribution of the topographic index is more intensive concentrated in the high mountain areas and runoff easily occurs in these areas.Compared with previous structure,the temperature index method of later is improved clearly.Determinacy coefficient of this model for previous method is lower than enhanced method.It shows that the enhanced method coupling TOPMODEL is more suitable for simulating rainfall runoff in the Manas River.The improved snowmelt algorithm not only make the model basin