经济转型与货币政策有效性实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Transition Economy

在证券市场不完善的发展中国家,货币需求函数并不完全,对货币的投机需求不足,此时货币供给的调整对产出具有明显而直接的影响;随着证券市场的逐步完善,货币需求的利率弹性开始变大,货币供给的调节对于实体经济的影响会减小。本文构建了基于中国宏观数据的VAR实证分析模型,实证结果支持了上述理论。

The money demand function is incomplete in developing countries with undeveloped security market, and the developing countries lack of speculation demand for money, at this time the regulation of money supply has direct and significant effect on output ; with the development of the security market, the interest rate elasticity of money demand be- came larger so that the monetary policy can play a less important role in influencing real economy. Finally, this paper constructs an empirical analysis model of VAR based on the macro data of China, and the empirical results support the theory.