我国奶类消费特征及中长期趋势预测

China's Characteristics of Dairy Consumption and Mid-long-term Trend Prediction

本文采用国家统计局1980—2012年我国居民奶类消费调查数据,从全国、城乡、不同收入组等层面分别总结我国居民奶类消费的特征,同时借助表观消费量这一指标,在总结借鉴典型地区(或国家)奶类消费变化规律的基础上,结合我国近十年奶类消费的变化趋势,对2020年、2025年我国奶类消费做出预测分析。研究表明,预计到2020、2025年奶类消费总量将分别达到5 640万t、6 550万t,满足未来居民奶类消费需求,我国奶类产量还需大幅增加。

This paper has adopted residents dairy consumption investigation data by National Bureau of Statistics of China from 1980 to 2012, and then summarizes the characteristics of residents dairy consumption in our country from three points of view：Across the country, urban and rural areas, and different income groups. On the basis of dairy consumption variation rules for reference in representative areas, and with the combination of dairy consumption changing tendency in recent ten years of China, to make the consumption prediction for 2020, 2025. The research shows that the total dairy quantity consumed by Chinese will be estimated to 56.4, 65.5 million tons for 2020, 2025, respectively. To meet the future requirement of residents＂ dairy consumption, the production of dairy products still need to be increased greatly