中国和中亚五国产业内贸易指数及影响因素研究

Research on Status and Influencing Factors of Intra- industry Trade between China and Central Asian Countries

利用产业内贸易指数和联合国SITC(REV.3)标准和1996-2013年数据,对中国和中亚各国产业内贸易加权总指数和分行业指数进行了计算,结果表明:中亚各国和中国在初级品产业的产业内贸易指数低于工业品产业;采用面板Tobit方法对产业内贸易的影响因素进行回归分析后发现,经济规模相对差距、人均GDP差异、FDI流入、贸易开放和距离等因素对不同行业的产业内贸易会产生不同的影响。

We calculate trade- weighted and industry- classified intra- industry trade index between China and Central Asian countries based on United Nations SITC（ REV. 3） codes and data from 1996 to 2013. The results reveal that intra- industry trade index between China and Central Asian countries is small,and from high to low is Kazakhstan、Uzbekistan、Tajikistan、Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan,and Kazakhstan is much higher than others. By industries,the intra- industry trade index is higher for manufactured goods than for primary products. In addition,the determinants of intra- industry trade are investigated using a panel Tobit regression model. The results indicate that difference in economic size、difference in per capita GDP、foreign direct investment inflows、openness and geographical distance will make different influences on intra- industry trade of different industries.