证券分析师盈余预测乐观倾向:利益关联还是启发式认知偏差?

Is It Heuristic Bias or Interest Relation that Leads to Optimistic Earnings Forecast of Securities Analysts?

本文系统考察了我国证券分析师乐观盈余预测的行为特征,研究发现:(1)由于证券公司与上市公司之间存在的利益关联和分析师自身存在的启发式认知偏差,证券分析师容易出具乐观倾向的盈余预测报告,表现为承销商分析师出具的盈余预测数据高于上市公司当年度实际盈余数据;而且分析师启发式认知偏差越严重,其出具的盈余预测数据与上市公司当年度实际盈余数据的正向偏差越严重;(2)启发式认知偏差和利益关联之间呈现替代关系,各自独立影响证券分析师盈余预测的乐观倾向;但当上市公司增发融资规模越较大,证券公司与上市公司之间的经济利益关联较为重要时,证券公司会诱使非明星分析师跟踪增发上市公司,导致分析师的启发式认知偏差和利益关联之间转变为互补关系,两者交互影响证券分析师盈余预测的乐观倾向。

Based on an analysis of optimistic earnings forecast made by securities analysts in China, this paper reaches two conclusions. 1 ） Driven by heuristic bias, underwriter analysts tend to issue positive forecast reports and give higher earnings forecasts than non-unerwriter analysts do and the stronger bias analysts have, the more different EPS forecast they tend to give in comparison with actual EPS. （2） Heuristic bias and interest relation are usually independent of each other in leading analysts to make optimistic earnings fore- asts, hut they may complement each other and mutually affect analysts＇ forecasts when listed companies with great financing have significant economic relationship with security companies, which would arrange non-star analysts to follow such listed companies.