基于Vague集的铁路应急预案评价方法

Evaluation method of railway emergency plan based on Vague set

铁路应急预案评价属不确定环境下的多目标多属性评价问题。基于已有的铁路应急预案评价指标,从重要性和独立性两方面对指标进行筛选和优化,得到11个关键性指标,建立铁路应急预案评价指标体系。提出一种基于Vague集的熵值法与基于Vague集的层次分析法(VAHP)相结合的主客观综合赋权法确定指标权重。采用TOPSIS方法,通过计算预案与理想方案之间的相似度量及相对贴近度,对各预案的优劣进行排序。实例分析表明,提出的评价方法对不确定环境下的评价问题具有较强的适用性和可操作性。

The evaluation of railway emergency plan is a multi- objective and multi- attribute evaluation problem under uncertain environment. Based on the existing evaluation indexes of railway emergency plan,the indexes were screened and optimized from the aspects of importance and independence,and 11 key indexes were obtained to established the evaluation index system of railway emergency plan. A subjective and objective comprehensive weight assigning method combining the entropy method based on Vague set with the analytic hierarchy process method based on Vague set was proposed to determine the weight of index. By applying the TOPSIS method,the quality of each plan was sorted through calculating the similarity measure and the relative closeness degree between the plan and the ideal scheme. The example analysis showed that the proposed evaluation method has a stronger applicability and operability for evaluation problem under uncertain environment.