基于前景理论的地铁施工灾后重建方案决策研究

Research on decision-making of post- disaster reconstruction scheme for subway construction based on prospect theory

为解决地铁施工灾后有限重建方案的多属性决策问题,以技术先进性、工程造价、工期、对周围居民的生活的影响及环境保护措施可靠性作为决策属性指标,采用考虑决策者参照依赖、损失规避和敏感性递减等心理行为特征的多属性决策分析方法—前景理论,以综合前景值的大小作为评价指标,进行重建方案的选择,计算结果与工程实际较吻合。该研究方法可用于灾后重建方案的决策问题,为决策者提供了理论参考和决策依据。

To solve the problem of multiple attribute decision- making for limited postdisaster reconstruction program of subway construction,taking the technical advancement,engineering cost,time limit,impact on the life of surrounding residents and reliability of environmental protection measure as the decision attribute indexes,using the prospect theory as an analysis method of multiple attribute decision- making considering the psychological behavior characteristics of decision maker such as reference dependence,loss aversion and sensitivity decline,the selection of reconstruction scheme was conducted by taking the comprehensive prospect value as the evaluation index,and the calculation result was in good agreement with the engineering practice. The method can be used in the decision making of post- disaster reconstruction scheme,and it provides a theoretical reference and decision- making basis for the decision maker.