基于改进的空间负荷预测法在远景年产业园区的应用研究

Application Study of Improved Spatial Load Forecasting Method in Planning Fuyang-Hefei Modern Industrial Zone

传统的空间负荷预测方法在选取同时率时难以满足精度要求,为此提出了一种改进方法,即对各分类负荷采用将各自的日负荷曲线相加的方法,并将其应用于阜阳合肥远景年产业园区的空间负荷预测,得出了准确与详实的负荷分布情况。预测结果表明该方法计算简便、精度高、实用性较强,可以有效提高负荷预测精度。

Traditional spatial load forecasting is used in selecting load coincidence factor, but it is difficult to meet the accuracy requirements. To this end, this paper presents an improved method which sums every daily load curve for each classification load, and uses the method to make spatial load forecasting in Fuyang-Hefei industrial zone, in order to obtain accurate and detailed load distribution. The results show that the method has the advantage of simple calculation, high accuracy and better practicability and thus it can improve the forecasting precision.