城镇化与农村人口老龄化的双向反馈效应——基于中国省际面板数据联立方程组的经验估计

The Feedback Effects between Urbanization and Rural Population Aging:An Empirical Estimation Based on the Joint Equations of China's Provincial Panel Data

本文在刘易斯模型的基础上构建基本的理论分析框架,探讨了城镇化与农村人口老龄化之间的双向影响机制,并利用2000—2012年中国省际面板数据,构建联立方程组模型、采用三阶段最小二乘法对城镇化和农村人口老龄化之间的双向反馈效应进行了实证考察。研究表明,城镇化显著加剧了农村人口老龄化程度,农村人口老龄化显著抑制了城镇化的发展,其他控制变量对城镇化与农村人口老龄化的影响存在一定差异。

The paper has constructed the basic theoretical analytical framework on the base of Lewis Model and discussed the bidirectional influence mechanism between urbanization and rural population aging. on this base the paper has constructed the consociation equation set model by utilizing the provincial panel data of China from the year of 2000 to 2012 and investigate the bidirectional feedback between the urbanization and population by adopting the three stage least square the conclusions are as follows: 1) urbanization has aggravated rural population ageing. The development of urbanization needs much young labor force. Meanwhile urbanization has enhanced the country medical、health and social security level by promoting the social economy which has reduced the death rate of the country elder. These two joint effects have accelerated rural population aging. The result shows that rural population aging would increase by 0. 22% if the urbanization rises by 1%. 2) The rural population aging has stopped the development of urbanization prominently. The enhancement of rural population aging has reduced the providing of labor force which needed by the urbanization Meanwhile,the rural aged population is consuming the social fortune which leads to less saving being turned into the investment and has stopped the development of urbanization. As we see from the result,the urbanization would drop by0. 05% if the rural population aging rises by 1%. 3) There are some differences affect of the other control variables on urbanization and rural population aging.