摘要
本文在刘易斯模型的基础上构建基本的理论分析框架,探讨了城镇化与农村人口老龄化之间的双向影响机制,并利用2000—2012年中国省际面板数据,构建联立方程组模型、采用三阶段最小二乘法对城镇化和农村人口老龄化之间的双向反馈效应进行了实证考察。研究表明,城镇化显著加剧了农村人口老龄化程度,农村人口老龄化显著抑制了城镇化的发展,其他控制变量对城镇化与农村人口老龄化的影响存在一定差异。
The paper has constructed the basic theoretical analytical framework on the base of Lewis Model and discussed the bidirectional influence mechanism between urbanization and rural population aging. on this base the paper has constructed the consociation equation set model by utilizing the provincial panel data of China from the year of 2000 to 2012 and investigate the bidirectional feedback between the urbanization and population by adopting the three stage least square the conclusions are as follows: 1) urbanization has aggravated rural population ageing. The development of urbanization needs much young labor force. Meanwhile urbanization has enhanced the country medical、health and social security level by promoting the social economy which has reduced the death rate of the country elder. These two joint effects have accelerated rural population aging. The result shows that rural population aging would increase by 0. 22% if the urbanization rises by 1%. 2) The rural population aging has stopped the development of urbanization prominently. The enhancement of rural population aging has reduced the providing of labor force which needed by the urbanization Meanwhile,the rural aged population is consuming the social fortune which leads to less saving being turned into the investment and has stopped the development of urbanization. As we see from the result,the urbanization would drop by0. 05% if the rural population aging rises by 1%. 3) There are some differences affect of the other control variables on urbanization and rural population aging.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期45-52,110-111,共8页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"资源环境约束下农业用水效率评价及提升路径研究"(编号:15CGL041)
山东省社科规划研究重点委托项目"金融产业优化与区域发展管理协同创新研究"(编号:14AWTJ01-12)