摘要
概率判断中的合取谬误是指违反事件发生概率的合取规则,而认为包含多个独立事件的复合事件的发生可能性大于其中某些事件的发生可能性的一种概率判断偏差现象。本研究探讨了概率组合类型与警告类型及其交互作用对合取谬误的影响,结果表明概率组合类型、警告类型的主效应均显著,但并未发现二者对合取谬误的影响存在交互作用。
The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment refers to a phenomenon of probability judgment bias, which results from violating the conjunction rules of event occurrence probability and regarding that the occurrence probability of conjunction event that contains multiple independent events is greater than that of conjunct events in it. This study examined the effect of probability combination, warning type and the interaction between them on the conjunction fallacy. The results suggested that the main effects of the two variables both reached the significant level. However, there was no interaction.
出处
《心理研究》
2016年第1期60-65,共6页
Psychological Research
关键词
合取谬误
合取事件概率组合类型
警告类型
conjunction fallacy
probability combination type of the conjunctive event
warning type
