中国31个省市区农产品出口扩展边际及影响因素分析

Analysis of the Extensive Margins of Export Growth of 31 Chinese Provinces and Determining Factors

本文基于贸易扩展边际模型框架,利用中国31个省市区2008-2013年的农产品出口HS4位编码数据,从贸易额、产品种类和效力三个维度详细阐述了各省市区农产品出口扩展边际的特征性事实,并结合内生性模型和引力模型揭示扩展边际的驱动因素。本文发现:多数省份在贸易额维度上出口增长扩展边际值较小,在产品种类和效力维度上出口扩展边际值较大,三种维度均表明扩展边际存在地区差异性,东部地区扩展边际值较高,接近发达国家平均水平,而西部地区较低,中西部地区扩展边际波动显著高于东部地区;各类农产品出口扩展边际并没有明显的增长趋势。通过对扩展边际的影响因素分析进一步发现,国内地理区位、农业投资和贸易自由度对出口扩展边际具有促进作用,而外商投资和距离等对出口扩展边际产生抑制作用,东部地区在地理区位上显著优于中西部地区。

Based on the extensive-margin model of trade, this paper uses the HS4 trade data from 31 provinces of China from 2008 to 2013 to systemically describe the fact-based characteristics of the extensive margins of the agricultural exports of the 31 provinces, with observations from the perspectives of trade volume, product categories, and export utilization. The paper also explores the driving factors of the extensive margins through an extended gravity model. The resuits show that the extensive margins of most provinces＇ export growth are small in terms of trade volume, but larger in terms of product categories and export utilization. At the same time, there were regional differences in all three measures. The extensive margins of export growth in eastem China were almost equal to those of developed countries and much higher than those in the west. Fluctuations in extensive margins in central and western China were also much more noticeable than in the east. Further, there was no significant trend of growth in any type of product during the period studied. By using endogenous and gravity models, our empirical research shows that economies of scale, invest- ment from domestic agricultural and mining industries, and trade freedom will have positive impact on extensive margin, while foreign investment and long dis- tances will have a negative impact, as evidenced by eastern China＇ s significant- ly more favorable location than the central and western parts of the country.