明年进出口前景未卜

Uncertain year ahead for imports, exports

全球经济疲软可能阻碍美国贸易增长,但房地产和汽车市场又是一剂强心针。

A weak global economy will likely create headwinds for U.S. trade, but the housing and auto markets should provide another lift. Softness in key parts of the global economy is producing cautious forecasts about U.S. containerized imports and exports in 2016.High retail inventory levels have cast a pall over imports, offsetting some of the recent gains from recovery in housing markets and booming automobile sales. The strong dollar and weak overseas demand are putting a significant dent in exports. Executives such as Maersk Group CEO Nils Andersen have warned of slowing global economic growth. During the last two years, U.S. containerized imports and exports have moved in opposite directions. Imports posted modest increases while exports contracted. Final numbers for 2015 are expected to show a record 20 million 20-foot-equivalent units of U.S. imports, compared with 11.4 million TEUs of exports.This would still leave export volume slightly below its 2013 peak of 12.1 million TEUs, however. And the import-export gap will widen further — Moreno forecasts imports will rise 5.5 percent, to a record 21.1 million TEUs.There's also increased competition for highvolume, low-value U.S. exports such as recycled paper, perennially the top U.S. containerized export commodity to Asia. China, the top buyer of recycled paper, is sourcing more scrap paper domestically as its consumer demand rises.U.S. exporters of recycled and agricultural goods were hit hard by the U.S. West Coast port gridlock in late 2014 and early 2015. The months of disruption cost them billions of dollars in lost sales and congestion-related fees. Many exporters still face an uphill battle to regain the confidence and business of buyers who turned to alternative suppliers in other countries.