基于灰色模型的广西海洋经济增加值预测研究

The Prediction Research on of Guangxi Marine Economic Value-added on the Base of the Grey Model

灰色预测模型具有对数据要求不高,却对中短期预测精度较高、效果较好的特点,其应用范围十分广泛.根据2010-2014年广西海洋经济相关数据,建立广西海洋经济增加值的灰色模型并进行检验,证明了模型可用,并对广西海洋经济增加值进行了预测.通过对比预测值与初始值数据,发现海洋科研教育管理服务业增加值与广西海洋生产增加值增长并不相匹配,增加值增加速度慢于广西海洋生产增加值,说明了广西在吸引海洋经济人才、资金、技术等时,对相应的海洋科研教育管理服务业的重视不够;同时,海洋矿业、海洋盐业、海洋船舶工业、海洋生物医药、海洋电力业、海水利用业比重占主要海洋产业增加值比重非常小,无论是绝对数量,还是相对比例,都与广西海洋经济快速发展态势不相匹配,最后给出了结论与建议.

Due to the low requirement to the data, but the higher prediction accuracy and better effect in the short term, the grey prediction model has very extensive range of applications. The paper, according fisheries data between 2010 to 2014 in Guangxi, the paper establish gray model of Guangxi .marine economic value-added production and value added, and tested, which proven models are available; At the same time, the paper predicts Guang-xi marine economic value-added by the grey model. We found that the growth of the value added of marine scientific research and education management services is not matched by comparing the predicted value and the initial value of the data, The Acceleration is slower than Guangxi marine production value added, which illustrates that Guangxi do not attach importance to marine scientific research and education management services while Guangxi is attracting talents, capital, technology and other resources; At the same time, the value added of ocean mining, marine salt, marine shipbuilding industry, marine biopharmaceutical, marine power industry, seawater utilization industry which accounted for a very small proportion of the main marine industries. Whether it is the absolute quantity, or the relative proportions are not matched with the rapid development of marine economy in Guangxi. Finally, the paper shows the conclusions and recommendations.