社会危机事件网络微博集群行为意向研究

Research on the Collective Behavior Intention of Network Microblog in Social Crisis

微博已成为社会危机事件网络集群行为的重要平台,本文旨在探析网络微博集群行为意向影响要素及内嵌规律,以防控其产生、扩散与次生危机迭加。基于对Fishbein模型的修正,研究采用焦点案例观测、感知实验和问卷调查等方法进行实证分析,结果显示:(1)以上海外滩踩踏事件为焦点案例,通过微博高频共词矩阵的网络结构与分层聚类分析,研究发现修正模型五大分析维度的现实存在、具体表现及语义内涵;(2)借助感知实验,研究发现五类危机事件中产品伤害和社会安全类最易引发网络微博集群行为;(3)问卷调查与结构方程实证分析发现,理性情境中社会规范感知因素对行为意向起主导作用,而在非理性情境中不确定信息影响和群际情绪感染则占据主导,但理性集群行为会最终实现回归。研究也显示了Fishbein模型的可扩展性和现实适用价值。

The issue of this paper is to analyze the influencing factors and embedded laws of microblogging collective behavior intention in the social crisis so as to prevent and control it from generation,diffusion and superimposed secondary crisis since the twitter has been an important platform for it. Based on an amendment to Fishbein model,the paper adopts some methods to conduct an empirical studying like focus case observation,perception experiment and questionnaire,etc.. The result shows:(1)With the Shanghai stampede as focus case,the study prescribes the five analysis dimensions' realistic presence,specific performance and semantic connotation of modified model by network architecture and hierarchical clustering analysis to the microblog coword matrix(.2)In the perception experiment,the article discover product harm and social security crisis are most likely to trigger a microblogging cluster behavior(.3)By the survey and structural equation empirical analysis,the research finds social norms perceived plays a leading role on the behavioral intention in rational context,otherwise,it is the uncertain information influence and intergroup emotions in irrational one. However,the rational collective behavior will eventually return to the mainstream. The study also shows the scalability and real practical value of Fishbein model.