原油价格对勘探开发投资及操作成本的传导机制分析

How Oil Price Work on Oil Companies′ Exploration and Production Investment and Operating Costs

2014年6月以来,原油价格大幅下跌,导致石油企业收益不断下滑,各大国际石油公司在坚持战略投资方向总体不变的前提下,对油气田勘探开发项目采用更为谨慎的投资策略。采用相关性分析和回归分析法,研究了2001～2014年大型跨国石油公司BP、壳牌、中石油、中石化的勘探开发投资、操作成本与原油价格的关联性及传导机制。原油价格主要通过影响投资收益率和通过产业链传导来影响勘探开发投资,主要通过影响成本动因和物价水平来影响操作成本。原油价格上涨时勘探开发投资增加较快,而下跌时勘探开发投资响应程度较弱,表现为小幅度下滑或增长速度下降。原油价格在高水平上变动时,操作成本变动的幅度更大,两者成正相关关系。石油公司应参考预期原油价格进行勘探开发的宏观决策,勘探开发投资要兼顾短期利益和长期利益,特别要重视科技投入,把技术进步作为降本增效、增强竞争力的关键措施。

Since June 2014 ,international oil price fell sharply ,leading to the continuous declining of oil companies＇ income.Without changing the strategic direction of investment,the major international oil companies adopted more prudent investment strategy for oil and gas exploration and development projects.Correlation analysis and regression analysis methods were applied to the study of the relationship among oil price and exploration and production investment and operating costs for large multinational oil company （BP,Shell, PetroChina and Sinopec） in 2001-2014 and their transmission mechanism.International oil price affects the exploration and production investment primarily by affecting return of investment and conduction through the industrial chain;it affects operating costs mainly by the impact on cost drivers and consumer living costs. When the international oil price increases,oil companies＇ exploration and production investment increases rapidly;while the international oil price declines,exploration and production investment declines little or just the increase rate of it declines.When the international oil price changes at a high level,there is a greater change scale on operating costs,that is to say,they have a positive correlation.The oil companies will make macroscopic decision on exploration and production according to the expected oil price.For the exploration and production investment,immediate interest and long-tern benefit should be considered together,science and technology input should be focused on taking technological advance as key measures of cost decreasing and benefit increasing and competitive power strengthening.