采用样板机法计算风电场弃风电量的实测数据统计分析

Statistical analysis of measured data for calculation of curtailed wind power using modal machine method

弃风限电问题已经成为制约我国风电产业发展的严重问题。准确估算弃风电量对合理评价弃风影响、制定风电发展政策和用于调度运行等都具有重要的意义。目前,我国采用样板机法进行弃风电量估算,基于甘肃省风电场实测数据,对估算的有效性和精度进行了统计分析。主要分析了弃风限电对风电机组出力特性的影响;基于蒙特卡罗方法提出了在选择不同数量的样板机组的情况下计算风电场出力分布的统计方法,并与穷举法对比,证明了该方法的有效性;研究了采用样板机法估算风电场理论应发电量的精度及其与样板机台数的关系;计算了典型风电场的弃风率。

Wind power curtailment has already become a severe problem that constrains wind industry development in China. Precise assessment of curtailed wind power is very important for reasonably evaluating the impact of wind power curtailment, making wind industry development policies and improving dispatch and operation of power system, et al. This paper aims to study the effectiveness and precision of modal machine method that commonly used in China for assessing curtailed wind power,utilizing measured data from wind farms in Gansu province. This paper analyzes the impact of wind power curtailment on the output characteristics of wind turbine generator; proposes a Monte Carlo method for calculating power output distribution of wind farms when selecting different numbers of modal wind turbine generators and proves its effectiveness by contrasting with exhaustion method;studies the assessment precision of wind farms＇ theoretical generation discarding curtailment and the relationship between precision and the number of modal wind generators; calculates the curtailment rate of some typical wind farms.