江苏省人口—经济耦合与经济发展阶段关联分析

Association Analysis on the Coupling Types between PopulationEconomic Development and Economic Development Stages in Jiangsu Province

运用灰色关联法建立耦合系统评价指标体系,构建人口与经济耦合关联模型,以江苏省县域为研究单元,基于第五次及第六次人口普查数据,定量评判人口与经济发展的耦合类型及特征,并将其与经济发展阶段相联系,研究耦合类型与不同经济发展阶段的变化规律。结果表明:2000年江苏省处于工业化初期,各县域大致划分为低水平(14个)、拮抗型(29个)、磨合型(20个)3种类型耦合区;2010年全省处于工业化中期向后期过渡阶段,各县域分为拮抗型(40个)、磨合型(11个)和协调型(12个)3种类型耦合区;耦合类型空间分布以长江为界,苏南与苏北两极分化明显,长江以北耦合类型水平较低,长江两岸耦合类型中等,长江以南耦合类型水平较高。从人口与经济发展耦合类型和经济发展阶段变化间的关联来看,在市场开放的条件下,区域的耦合类型随着经济发展阶段的升级而依次升级,经济发展阶段越高,人口与经济耦合程度越高,其耦合类型与经济发展水平在空间上则越趋向于协调一致。

Based on the comprehensive analysis of the demographic profile and economic profile in Jiangsu Province, thanks to gray relative analysis method, with the fifth and the sixth census data, from county scale, cou- pled evaluation index system is set up, the coupling model of population and economy is established based on cou- pling types, and features of population and economic development can be evaluated quantitatively. What＇ s more, by associating coupling with economic growth stage, the laws of coupling types and different economic development stages can be researched. The conclusions as follows： In spatial series, in the light of the coupling degree and dis- tribution of economic development standard, in 2000, at the stage of early industrialization, 63 counties （cities, down- towns） of Jiangsu Province can be roughly divided into three types： low-level coupling （14 districts）, conflict （29 dis- tricts）, amelioration （20 districts）. However, in 2010, at the transition stage of middle to late industrialization, they can be divided into another three types： conflict （40 districts）, amelioration （11 districts）and harmony （12 districts）. The spatial distribution of coupling types follows the law of north-south spatial variation, of which the boundary is the Yangtze River. The polarization between South Jiangsu and North Jiangsu is very evident, north of the Yangtze is low level cou- pling type, medium level coupling type is on both sides of the Yangtze River, south of the Yangtze River is high level coupling type. From the perspective of economic development stages and the coupling types of population and economic development, at different levels and stages of economic development, different coupling types and cou- pling characteristics of the relationship between population and economy can be emerged. Under the conditions of market liberalization, the higher stages of economic development, the higher the degrees of coupling between popu- lation and economy, the more coherent between its economic development level and coupling types in space.