中国经济增长中的人力资本门槛效应研究

The Threshold Effect of Human Capital in China's Economic Growth

Azariadis和Drazen(1990)的人力资本门槛外部性理论研究发现,引入人力资本后两部门增长模型存在多重稳态均衡,人力资本积累跨越某一门槛值后经济体进入新的平衡增长路径。然而,现有实证研究多聚焦于人力资本对FDI等单一影响的门槛效应的存在性,在经济增长框架下讨论中国人力资本门槛效应的系统研究并不多见。基于此,本文利用中国1996—2012年省级面板数据估计了人力资本门槛值,并考察了人力资本门槛效应对物质资本、FDI以及人力资本等要素回报率的综合影响。研究结果表明人力资本积累的门槛效应确实显著存在,以人均受教育年限计算的门槛值达到9.75年,人力资本水平超过门槛值后物质资本和FDI回报率均大幅提高。

In the paper about the threshold externalities in development,Azariadis and Drazen（ 1990） found that the two-sectors growth model may exist multiple,locally stable stationary states. As human capital cross the threshold,the economy may be leaded into a new balance growth path. Nevertheless,the empirical research mainly focuses on the existence of the threshold effect of human capital on FDI,etc. There is very little research on the threshold effect of human capital basing on the framework of economic growth in China. This paper estimates the threshold of human capital by using provincial panel data from 1996 to 2012 in China. It investigates the comprehensive threshold effect of human capital on physical capital,FDI as well as human capital comprehensivety. The result shows that the threshold of human capital measured by education attainment per capita reaches 9. 75. When the human capital cross the threshold level,the return of physical capital as well as FDI significomtly improves significantly.