长株潭城市群区域公路网事故频率研究

Traffic accident frequency research of road network in Changsha- Zhuzhou- Xiangtan urban agglomeration

交通事故发生率是体现道路安全水平的重要指标之一。按行政区划将长株潭城市群划分为23个区域,利用区域事故频率预测方法中条件自回归(CAR)模型,关联区域交通事故频率与相应人-车-路系统中的各种风险因素,挖掘长株潭城市群区域路网事故频率的主要影响因素,并提供相应改善建议。

Traffic accident frequency is one of the important indices of road safety level.This paper firstly divid-ed Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration into 23 areas according to administrative divisions,then made use of the Condition autoregressive (CAR)model,which was among regional accident prediction methods, to relate the accident frequency to the corresponding various risk factors in driver-car-road system.Finally, the main influencing factors were identified and the corresponding improvement suggestions were made.