电力行业温室气体排放情景分析

Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emission of power sector

通过对不同发电形式全生命周期的二氧化碳排放因子（LCE）的统计研究,提出适合我国不同发电形式的LCE推荐值.基于对我国电力行业能源结构发展现状的分析,计算电力行业的温室气体（GHG）排放总量现状.结合电力行业不同发电形式发电量的占比要求,建立3个发展情景来分析未来的电力减排效益.在基准情景下,不改变2012年电力行业的能源结构,建立不同发电形式的发电量占比,新增燃煤选用低LCE系统.结果表明：电力系统的年平均LCE没有改变,并不能满足在发展经济的同时实现减排的要求;约束情景根据政策目标调整能源结构,且基于科技的发展,燃煤发电的LCE逐年降低,减排效果非常明显,电力系统的年平均LCE明显减少,但仍难以完成2030年GHG排放量达到峰值的目标;优化情景大力调整能源结构且燃煤系统的LCE进一步降低,到2030年GHG的年排放量将趋于稳定,有望达到减排目标.在评价年限（2013~2030年）内,与保持2012年平均技术水平而不做任何改变所得的结果相比,3种情景分别可达到减排66.6、255.6和297.0亿吨GHG的效果.

Recommended values of life cycle carbon dioxide emission （I.CE） for China were put forward by statistical study on different power generation forms of LCE. Current situation of total greenhouse gas （GHG） emission from power sector was calculated based on the analysis of current energy structure development of power sector in China. Three scenarios were made to predict power mitigation in the future based on the proportion requirements on generated energy of different power forms prediction in power sector. In baseline scenario, the energy structure in power sector were set as the situation in 2012 to establish different shares of each power forms and the low I.CE system was used in the added coal-fired generation. Results show that the annual average LCE has not been changed, and the mitigation target could hardly be realized with meeting the economy development. In restricted scenario, the shares of each power form are adjusted according to the policy goals, and the I.CE of coal power is reduced year by year according to the technological development. The effect of mitigation is obvious and the total LCE is largely reduced, however, to reach the GHG emission peak in 2030 is still hard. In optimistic scenario, larger share of non fossil power is set and the I.CE of coal power is further reduced. GHG emission in 2030 will stay stability, making it possible to reach the targets. In the evaluation years from 2013 to 2030, GHG reduction is 6.66, 25. 56 and 29. 70 billion tons by the three scenarios, respectively, compared with the results of maintaining the development of average technological level in 2012.