新型城镇化的经济增长效应及其传导路径

The Effect and Conduction Paths of Economic Growth in China's New Urbanization Drive

新型城镇化已上升为拉动我国经济增长的重要战略性举措。文章构建指标体系计算了我国30个省市新型城镇化率这一综合指数,并以此为核心解释变量,检验了我国2000—2014年新型城镇化率与经济增长的关系及传导路径。研究发现:城镇化与经济增长是一种循环累积因果效应关系;新型城镇化对我国经济增长具有显著的正向效应,而且这一效应在不断增强;分省数据的深入研究发现,新型城镇化促进我国经济增长的传导路径为:西部欠发达地区城镇化的增长效应中投资效应明显,而老牌、成熟的大型城市则消费效应明显。因此,对于欠发达地区要发挥巨大的消费潜力,对于发达地区则要培育新的消费增长点,让消费在促进我国经济可增长中发挥更加重要的作用。

The new urbanization has become an important strategic measure in stimulate China’s economic growth. This paper analyzed the comprehensive index of new urbanization in China’s 30 provinces to test the relationship between economic growth and new urbanization from 2000 to 2014. This study showed that urbanization and economic growth is a kind of cyclic cumulative causal relationship. New urbanization has a significant positive effect on China’s economic growth and this effect has been increasing in recent years. Urbanization in less developed areas in China’s west promotes growth by investment while in old and mature large provinces the consumption effect is more obvious. Therefore, for the less developed regions,consumption potentials must be tapped while for the developed regions new growth points of consumption should be cultivated so that consumption can play a more significant role in China’s economic growth.