复杂性科学理论视域下中国男篮成绩表现归因解析

Deconstruction on Performance of China Men's Basketball Achievement Attribution under the View of Complexity Science Theory

以中国男篮成绩表现归因的复杂性为切入点,运用文献资料法、特尔菲法、复杂系统建模与仿真方法等,借助复杂性科学理论的相关知识对中国男篮成绩表现归因的整体复杂性内涵、成绩表现系统内外复杂性特征等方面进行了分析。指出中国男篮成绩表现系统是一个具有复杂性的开放系统,其复杂性主要表现在"所处生存环境复杂""组织管理机构复杂""主体关系复杂""人才培养、选拔体系复杂""对对手的信息认知复杂""规则和裁判员因素的复杂"等方面,系统内、外部主体相互作用的复杂网络状关系使得球队成绩输出表现出多变量、多参数的非线性、非平稳性、非确定性等复杂特性。希望通过该研究使我国竞技篮球界在研究中国男篮成绩表现归因时,能够改变思维方式和角度,把中国男篮成绩表现问题当作复杂性问题来对待,为中国男篮成绩的提高献计献策。

To showthe complexity of China men＇s basketball results performance attribution as the starting point,using the method of literature review,Delphi method,modeling and simulation of complex systems,the authors analyze on the overall complexity of the connotation of China men＇s basketball results performance by the related knowledge of complexity science theory and pointed out that China men＇s basketball results performance system is an open system with lots of complexities,which are mainly manifested in ＂the complexity of the living environment complex＂,＂the complexity of the organization＂,＂the complexity of the relationship between the agents＂,＂the complexity of the talent cultivation,selection system＂,＂the complexity on the cognition about the opponent＇s information＂,and＂the complexity of the rules and referees factors＂etc. The complex network of interactions between the system and the agents of the interaction of the team makes the performance of the team nonlinear,non-stationary and non-deterministic. Through this study,we hope that the study of the Chinese competitive basketball could change the way of thinking and point of view,regard the China men＇s basketball team performance as complexity problems to treat and give the advice and suggestions for improvement of the performance of Chinese men＇s basketball team.