考虑补货策略的供需驱动链牛鞭效应分析

Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply-demand-driven Chain Considering Replenishment Policies

通过建立含有供需驱动的供应链,采用最小均方差法预测提前期需求,分析库存平滑补货策略、订货平滑补货策略以及一般线性补货策略下的供应链牛鞭效应。研究结果表明:订货平滑补货策略是弱化牛鞭效应的最优补货策略;对于库存平滑补货策略和一般线性补货策略而言,当库存平滑系数较小或零售商订货提前期较小抑或产品价格调节系数较大时,采用一般线性补货策略能显著抑制牛鞭效应;当零售商订货提前期较大时,采用库存平滑补货策略更能有效缓解牛鞭效应;在同等程度的产品需求与供给波动下,选择一般线性补货策略更有利于牛鞭效应的减小。

In a supply-demand-driven chain, the minimum mean-squared error forecasting technique is used to estimate the lead time demand and analyze the bullwhip effect under three replenishment policies--the inventory position smoothing replenishment policy, the order quantity smoothing replenishment policy and the general linear replenishment policy. The research shows that： （1） the order quantity smoothing replenishment policy can be the best choice in the reduction of bullwhip effect; （2） in terms of the inventory position smoothing replenishment policy and the general linear replenishment policy, the latter will be a better choice to weaken the bullwhip effect obviously when inventory smoothing coefficient is small, the retailer lead time is small or the product price adjustment coefficient is large. The inventory position smoothing replenishment policy is more effective in alleviating bullwhip effect than the general linear replenishment policy when the retailer lead time is large. At the same level of product demand and supply fluctuation, the general linear replenishment policy is much advantageous to minimum bullwhip effect.