基于突变级数法的中国经济发展评价

Evaluation System of China's Economic Development Based on Catastrophe Theory

运用突变级数法,以1991~2012年中国社会、环境、创新及经济活动四个方面的数据构建指标体系,对中国经济以及各个领域的发展态势进行评估。结果表明：（1）中国经济发展水平在1991~2012年整体呈上升态势,但2010年之后出现明显下滑;（2）中国的经济发展具有明显的非均衡性,具体表现为：社会和环境的发展程度弱于创新和经济活动的发展;卫生健康方面的发展存在很大的进步空间;教育活动与科研活动并没有呈现同步增长;经济规模快速扩展,但经济结构却停滞不前。

Based on Catastrophe Theory, an index system is established upon China＇ s data in terms of society, environment, innovation and economic activities to assess the development level of China＇ s economy during 1991-2012. The results show that： （1） the level of economic development of China manifests an upward trend on the whole while a decline after 2010; （2） despite an obvious improvement, China＇s economic development is featured as unbalance--social and environmental development is not as strong as innovative and economic activities; improvement in health area is not far enough; education and scientific research presents synchronous growth rates and economic scale rapidly expands while economic structure is stagnant.