中国经济增长要素贡献率实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Contribution Rate of Factors to Chinese Economic Growth

为了探寻改革开放以来中国经济增长的动力所在,文中使用1981-2014年的年度实际GDP、资本投资以及劳动年龄人口数量对中国经济增长从全要素视角进行了分解研究.研究结果表明:在1981-1990年与1991-2014年两个时间段,由于宏观经济环境的不同以及中国国情的特殊性,不同生产要素对经济发展的贡献度有所差异.在1981-2014年,技术进步的影响日趋增大;资本的贡献度最高,且长期保持平稳;劳动力因素的影响逐渐下降,与传统的"人多力量大"的理念并不一致,人口红利在中国表现并不明显.

In order to explore the driving force of China＇ economic growth since the reform and opening up, the paper studies the economic growth from the perspective of total factors like the annual real GDP, capital investment and labor age population in the years from 1980 to 2014. The results show that, in the two different periods from 1981 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2014, because of different macroeconomic environment and the special characteristics of China ＇ s national conditions, different factors made different contributions to economic development. But in the whole period from 1981 to 2014, the influence of technological progress was increasing,while the capital＇s contribution was greatest and kept stable in the long-term. By contrast,the influence of labor force was gradually decreasing, which was not consistent to the traditional concept of ＂many hands make light work＂. Therefore, the demographic dividend was not obvious in China.