2014/15年度中国棉花市场回顾及2015/16年度展望

China's Cotton Market in 2014/15 and Its Prospect for 2015/16

受政策调整、宏观经济环境变化影响,2014/15年度中国棉花产量下降,需求疲软,进口量大幅回落,储备棉投放成交率偏低。同时国内棉花库存水平过高,供需格局宽松,导致籽棉价格低开低走,皮棉价格持续下行,国内外棉价差缩小。2015/16年度国内棉花供需格局依然宽松,棉花价格将低位运行,目标价格政策效率将有所改善。

Influenced by policy adjustment and macro-economic environment change,China＇s cotton production and demand fell,cotton imports dropped sharply and the delivery rate of national reserved cotton was low in 2014/15.Meanwhile,affected by the high inventory of domestic cotton and exceeded supply,unginned cotton price decreased with a low beginning price,ginned cotton price continued declining and the price spread of cotton at home and abroad became smaller.In 2015/16,domestic cotton supply will remain adequate and demand fell,cotton price will decline and the efficiency of cotton target price policy will improve.