北京市工业行业能源消费碳排放现状、问题与对策研究

工业领域的节能减排是城市节能减排的重点,目前北京市工业能源消费碳排放占全市能源消费碳排放的比例较高,研究北京市工业能源消费碳排放的变化趋势和北京市工业能源消费碳排放的主要影响因素具有重要现实意义。基于2001—2012年北京市工业能源消费和二氧化碳排放的现状,分析北京市工业能源消费在现阶段存在的问题和不足之处,并采用GM(1.1)模型和指数模型对2013—2020年北京市工业行业的能源消费和二氧化碳排放状况进行预测。在此基础上,针对北京市能源消费特点提出符合其功能定位的工业低碳发展政策建议。

Industry is the main objective of the city＇s energy saving and emission reduction. Currently, Beijing has a high proportion of industries＇ carbon emissions of energy consumption accounted for the whole city. It will have great practical significances to research on the characteristics and major factors of Beijing＇s industrial carbon emissions of energy consumption. This article is based on the current industrial energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing from 2000 to 2012, and analyzes existing problems and deficiencies of energy consumption of the Beijing Industry. Then using GM （ 1.1 ） model and the exponential model to forecast the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in next decade. On this basis, propose policy recommendations in the development of low-carbon of industries.