基于Monte-Carlo法的多级黄土滑坡危险性评价

Multilevel loess landslide risk evaluation based on Monte-Carlo method

针对存在多级滑动面的黄土滑坡,难以用简单的单一滑动面评价其稳定性,基于Monte-Carlo法理论,结合简化Bishop法,在极限平衡条件下建立滑坡稳定可靠性分析的状态函数,提出基于概率的黄土滑坡稳定性计算方法。通过对各级滑坡在滑动时安全余量的相关系数计算,得到多级黄土滑坡破坏过程各个滑面的破坏概率具有相关性,同时建立基于概率理论黄土滑坡危险性评价指标。以阳庄村滑坡为例,分别计算滑坡体上的Ⅲ级滑坡稳定系数及可靠度,定量的表达出阳庄村Ⅲ级滑坡的危险程度,为滑坡的工程治理,预测预警和危险性评价提供依据。

As for the loess landslide which has multilevel slide faces, its stability cannot be evaluated with the simple single slide face. Based on the theory of Monte-Carlo method and with the combination of simplified Bishop method, the paper established the analytical status function for the stability and reliability of the landslide under the condition of the limit equilibrium, put forward the calculation method for the stability of the loess landslide based on the probability, obtained that the destroy probability of all the slide faces are related to each other during the destroy of the multilevel loess landslide after calculation of the relevant safety margin coefficients during the sliding of the landslide of each level, meanwhile, established the evaluation index for the loess landslide risks based on the probability theory. Taking the landslide in Yangzhuang village as the example, the stability coefficient and reliability of the Category-III landslide were calculated respectively, so as to reflect the dangerous degree of the Category-III landslide in Yangzhuang village quantitatively. Thus, it provides the reference for the project management, forecasting, early warning and the risk evaluation of the landslide.