洱源县农作物产量对气候变化响应的敏感性分析

Analysis of Sensitivity of Crop Yields to Climate Change Function in Eryuan County

以洱源县为试点,采用农作物产量分解方法和气候生产潜力计算方法,定量分析农作物产量受历史气候变化影响的程度。分析结果显示:1952—2012年,洱源县温度生产潜力呈上升趋势,降水生产潜力呈下降趋势;气候生产潜力与研究时段年均温度相关系数为-0.11,与年均降水量相关系数为0.96,表明降水量是决定洱源县气候生产潜力的主导因子。研究表明,近60a来洱源县农作物产量受气候变化影响的程度正不断上升,以负面影响为主。

In order to examone the impacts of historical climate change on agricultural production in different areas of Yunnan,Eryuan county,as the study area,was selected to quantify the impacs using crop yield decomposition method and climatic potential productivity calculation method.The results indicated that the temperature potential productivity showed a trend of escalation in Eryuan from 1952 to 2012,and the rainfall potential productivity was tending to decline.The correlation coefficient between climatic potential productivity and annual temperature was-0.11.The correlation coefficient between climatic potential productivity and average annual precipitation was 0.96,which indicated that precipitation was the driving factor influencing climatic potential productivity in Eryuan. It also showed that the crop yields have tend to be influenced by climate change more easily than before in an ad-verse way in Eryuan over the past 60 years.