逆周期调节与“政府信用替代资本信用”——苏州工业园区三次遭遇危机条件下的政府行为案例分析

Counter Cyclical Adjustment and Replacing the Capital Credit with Governmental Credit——A Case Analysis of Government Behavior in Suzhou Industrial Park under Three Crisis

基于一个有重大现实意义的中国经验发现:在危机条件下私人部门的顺周期行为是常见的;而逆周期调节则需要政府信用对私人资本信用的有效替代;这不仅能够烫平经济波动,并且当复苏和高涨接踵而至之际还会产生制度收益。市场化改革使承担无限责任的中央和承担有限责任的地方之间发生政府信用分化^([1])。由此,一般地方政府并不具备内在对接中央政府信用以替代外部资本信用的客观条件。而本文案例论证的苏州工业园区之所以能够在20年间多次"化危为机"——在1988—1994年滞涨型周期性危机之中逆势而起、在1998—2001年通货紧缩期间获得国家战略投资、2008年全球经济危机之际推进结构调整,主要是因其承接国家重大战略任务而特有的"集中力量办大事的国家体制"特征。亦即,园区~①"政企合一"的地方政府信用很大程度上带有无限责任的特点,才能够平滑对接无限责任的中央政府信用,共同完成对外部资本信用的替代。

Based on a piece of very significant and practical Chinese experience, we have noticed that： under crisis, it＇s quite common to see the private sector carry out the cyclical behavior, whereas the counter cyclical adjustment requires effective replacement of private capital credit by governmental credit; this can not only smooth economic fluctuations, but also help produce system revenue when economic recovery and upsurge comes up. The market oriented reform leads to the divided credit between central and local government, with the former takes infinite liability and the latter takes limited liability. As a result, the general local governments do not enjoy the internal connection with the central government credit to replace the external capital credit. But Suzhou Industrial Park has turned crisis into opportunity for many times in the past 20 years -- firstly, grew up during the crisis of economic stagnation in 1988-1994; secondly, obtained national strategic investment during the deflation period in 2001; thirdly, promoted economic structural adjustment during the global economic crisis in 2008. It＇s mainly because it enjoys the unique characteristic of the national system to concentrate power to do big things, as it undertook major national strategic tasks. That is to say, the local government credit of Suzhou Industrial Park has the characteristics of unlimited liability that can connect the central government credit smoothly to replace the external capital credit.